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Tag Archives: cardiovascular risk assessment

May 2009 Br J Cardiol 2009;16:117–18

Risk assessment gone mad: the rise of risk evaluation and mass public deception

David Gray

Abstract

Why the Framingham (or any) risk score can never be a ‘perfect’ predictor There are several factors. First, Framingham can never be truly predictive once applied to a different population – its data were obtained from a North-Eastern American, predominantly middle-class, urban, Caucasian population. Second, some age–gender groups were rather small, making these underpowered to provide anything like a reliable predictive estimate of cardiovascular risk. Third, with infallible 20:20 hindsight (not available to Framingham’s originators), several risk factors might now reasonably be added to improve ‘predictive accuracy’, not least

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